"A NOTE ON SOME PROBLEMS OF MEASUREMENT AND PREDICTION IN A TRAINING GROUP"

Abstract

The major task of a leader in a training or therapy group is to make valid predictions about group (and at times) individual behavior. Usually these predictions are based on "clinical judgment," "intuition," past experience, some implicit or explicit theory system, and the behavior manifest in the group. There are several difficulties inherent in the usual clinical prediction method.! For one thing, no matter how excellent the predictions of the seasoned group leader may be, they are difficult to communicate to others without direct experience in the same setting. For another, the units of behavior which are predicted to are typically so global as to obviate operational testing. Such concepts as "movement" or "change," increased "self-awareness," attitudes toward leader, sub-group formations, and so on defy the usual scientific procedures unless they are conceptually clear, operationally explained and tested.